Mena ülkelerinde borç servisi ve doğrusal olmayan yakınsama

Abstract

In the wake of the recent financial crisis and after the accumulation of sizeable public debts, especially in the emerging Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies, the financial distress of the public sector has become a major source of concern for policymakers in the region. The conduct of uncontrolled exchange rate and undisciplined fiscal policies in small scale Mena economies has recently become critical in determining these countries’ future economic and fiscal situation, due to the accumulation of a sizable level of external debt since early 1990s. Statistical and econometric analysis supports the view that the current fiscal framework addressed debt sustainability concerns, but imparted a pro-cyclical bias, which contributed to economic divergence. The subject of this paper is the examination of convergence of debt service on external debt of MENA countries. The paper launches the data of a period between 1970 and 2013 for MENA economies of Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey. This paper employs Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) panel unit root test to examine the stationarity of the series. Finally, the paper reveals that there is a full convergence for panel in both regimes