Ülkelerin gelişmişlik seviyesi optimal kamu büyüklüğünü nasıl etkilemektedir: Panel data analizi ile uygulamalı bir çalışma

Abstract

This study aims to clarify whether there is an optimal government size and, if there is any, to determine whether it changes according to the development level of the countries. Estimations in terms of these research questions were analyzed with the help of the Armey Curve. The economic growth rate was used as a dependent variable, and the annual public expenditure ratio in GDP, gross fixed capital formation, and the unemployment rate were used as independent variables. Additionally, a dummy variable was employed for the effects of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The data were obtained from the World Bank database. 21 countries' data for the period 1990-2019 were analyzed with AMG Panel Data Analysis. According to the findings of the study; the existence of optimal public expenditure value was confirmed in 18 countries except for Spain, Mexico, and Colombia. It was observed that the average optimal public size is 30.67% in developed countries and 25.43% in developing countries. These results are consistent with Wagner's (1882) argument and Keynesian view. As a result; it is possible to argue that as the development level of the countries increases, so does the public size within the economic structure.