Prediction of socio-economical consequences of privatization at the firm level with fuzzy cognitive mapping

Abstract

Privatization has been a central element of the structural reforms in both developed and developing countries following neo-liberal policies, since 1980s. The initial effects of privatization policies and practices are observed on the employees of public enterprises, and for this reason, socio-economical effects of privatization policies need to be examined taking the opinions and expectations of the employees of public enterprises into consideration.

In this study, the opinions and expectations of the employees of Nevşehir Factory of Alcohol Drinks of General Directorate of Tekel which has the greatest capacity in the distilled alcohol drink sector of Turkey, and which is included in the privatization portfolio of the year 2002, are analyzed with the method of fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM). Also, with FCM simulations and “If–Then” scenarios, predictions of interactions of the variables are made.